CO2 HDV Regulations: What do they mean for OEMs?

In May 2024, the European Council formally adopted an amendment to CO₂ emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). This regulation applies stricter carbon emissions reduction targets to nearly all new heavy-duty vehicles, including commercial and vocational trucks, urban buses, and coaches. The goal is to achieve a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040.

How does the regulation affect vehicle OEMs? 

The bulk of the responsibility for meeting the CO₂ emissions targets currently rests on vehicle OEMs, since carbon reductions will be measured on a fleet average basis using data from the VECTO tool. OEMs’ vehicle sales after 2025 will need to show the mandatory carbon reductions from their applicable baseline. This means that OEMs will need to sell an increasing number of vehicles powered by low- and zero-carbon technologies, mandating a change to traditional fossil-fuel based vehicle strategies.  

How will CO₂ emissions be monitored? 

Crucial to monitoring CO₂ emissions and fuel use is the Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool (VECTO). This data is mandatory for new trucks, buses and coaches above 3500 kg gross vehicle weight (GVW) and must be made publicly available. 

VECTO utilises engine, powertrain and vehicle data, with parameters such as rolling resistance, air drag, masses and inertias, to simulate CO₂ emissions across HDVs. These results are then combined in different proportions depending on the vehicle’s sub-category. 

Compliance with EU CO₂ reduction targets, assessed via VECTO, is based on CO₂ emissions at the tailpipe as a result of fuel consumption. It doesn’t capture the small amounts of CO₂ generated by AdBlue/DEF consumption or lubrication oils burning or what is produced through non-green hydrogen or electricity to charge batteries. There are also proposals to include the well to tank carbon intensity of the fuel, to give credit to biodiesel, HVO and e-fuels, but these developments are currently in their infancy. 

How have previous CO₂ regulations affected the on-highway market? 

Whenever new legislation is introduced, the industry adapts. Previous policy iterations has seen vehicle OEMs redesign cabs to make weight savings and provide room to incorporate new aftertreatment systems. Engines have also historically been downsped where required to support operation within lower emissions limits. 

We are now seeing power solutions providers innovating further to develop battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen combustion engines. The development of these technologies by Cummins means there are now multiple power options at an OEM’s disposal. Implementation of the stricter CO₂ target is likely to accelerate uptake of these zero-carbon emissions technologies, assuming supporting fueling infrastructure can be delivered.