Energy IQ : Five insights into the future of energy for energy consultants – Part I

Wind Farm

We are forecasted to experience one of the most significant transitions in the energy industry over the next two decades, as electricity challenges oil’s role as the most popular form of energy in final consumption. 

This on-going transition creates the need for businesses to re-visit their energy management strategies and capitalize on the associated opportunities. Energy consultants play the thought leadership role as businesses seek to optimize their energy management strategies during this transition.

The International Energy Agency annually releases its World Energy Outlook with an objective of deepening our understanding of the future of energy. This report is over 800 pages, and has great insights around the future of energy. In this two-part blog post, we have summarized five insights every energy consultant needs to know when it comes to the future of energy.

No. #1: Electricity use grows faster than energy demand

Demand for energy is forecasted to grow 1% a year until 2040Electricity use vs energy demand, while the electricity use is forecasted to grow twice as fast. While the use of electric vehicles is one of the most highlighted reasons for this increased demand, there are three other more impactful drivers of this increase: industrial motors, household appliances and cooling needs. 

This increased demand for electricity will strengthen its position as the second most popular choice of energy in final consumption, challenging oil’s positions at the top. A mix of technologies will fuel this transition, where solar PV and wind will take the lead. By 2040, more of our electricity will be through renewable sources than fossil fuels.

No. #2: Two technologies are forecasted to make the biggest gains in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

While building a new coal plant no longer offers the lOffshore wind technologyowest LCOE in many regions, existing coal plants continue to have the lowest LCOE across most regions today. Meanwhile, there are two technologies that are making big gains to deliver lower LCOE in the next two decades: offshore wind and solar (PV).

Offshore wind is positioned to experience the biggest gains in lowering LCOE and is expected to be even less than solar PV in regions such as China and the European Union. Moreover, offshore wind projects already feature annual capacity factors of 40-50%, which are well above capacity factors for solar PV and approximately the same with gas-fired power plants in several regions.

 

Energy consultants play a key role in shaping our energy future by acting as guides to their customers and partners from commercial to industrial markets. Insights shared in this article are aimed to keep the energy consultants’ perspective of the future fresh and current.

 

Part II of this article will highlight three more insights focused on increasing the need for flexibility, scalability of renewables and how subsidies for renewables compare with subsidies for fossil fuel consumption. Sign up below for Energy IQ to receive Part II and other relevant insights about energy management. To learn more about distributed generation solutions Cummins Inc. offers, visit our webpage

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Aytek Yuksel - Cummins Inc

Aytek Yuksel

Aytek Yuksel is the Content Marketing Leader for Cummins Inc., with a focus on Power Systems markets. Aytek joined the Company in 2008. Since then, he has worked in several marketing roles and now brings you the learnings from our key markets ranging from industrial to residential markets. Aytek lives in Minneapolis, Minnesota with his wife and two kids.

Cummins Custompaks are being used for water management as Thailand struggles with its water crisis

CustomPak on site

Water crisis

Sixty Cummins Inc. CustomPaks are in service in Thailand as part of a critical water management plan aimed at easing the country’s water crisis – a crisis that has caused enormous economic and social damage and stirred conflict among communities.

Over the past several decades, Thailand has continually faced water problems caused by severe drought. Water reserves in dams and reservoirs are insufficient while water resources are often contaminated with toxins caused by urban communities and the industrial and agricultural sectors.

Severe flooding is a threat, too, at a time when the realities of climate change are hanging over the country.

As a result, the allocation of precious water resources, which must be shared among various stakeholders including new and existing industry, large and small agriculture, and cities and villages has become a flashpoint.

Kittithanapat Engineering Co. (KTP), has been involved in the water management system since 1996, working closely with authorities such as the Royal Irrigation Department, Department of Water Resources, Bangkok Metropolitan Authority and others.

CustomPaks on site

600 hp CustomPaks

To help KTP meet its often urgent requirements, Cummins DKSH (Thailand) has recently supplied 60 Australian-built CustomPaks – 45 powered by Cummins’ X15 engine rated at 600 hp, and 15 powered by the QSL9 rated at 325 hp. These fully self-contained powerpacks are emissions certified to Tier 3.

The CustomPaks are coupled to hydraulically-driven, large-volume submersible water pumps sourced by KTP from US company Moving Water Industries (MWI); KTP is the exclusive distributor in Thailand for these MWI Hydroflo pumps.

Prior to Cummins’ involvement, KTP was using another diesel engine brand but service support wasn’t up to the standard required.

Long-serving KTP engineer Kittisak Thanasoot says Cummins DKSH’s reputation for technical and aftersales support along with the reliability of the Cummins product were a key reason behind KTP’s decision to specify the CustomPaks for the Royal Irrigation Department.

The ability of Cummins DKSH to respond to short delivery times was also important.

“Supplying large quantities of high horsepower diesel engines for emergency situations such as flash flooding can be a challenge for KTP,” says Kittisak Thanasoot.

“Responding to the needs of the government agencies to manage such problems in a timely manner and with least impact on communities, KTP has found the answer in our partnership with Cummins DKSH.”

Power, pride and passion

Parked semi truck

The switch back to Cummins power has been beneficial for iconic New Zealand company Uhlenberg Haulage. It's all about whole-of-life costs.

Uhlenberg Haulage is closing in on 60 years in business, having been founded in 1966 by Mike and Carol Uhlenberg.

Based in Eltham, Taranaki, in New Zealand’s North Island, the operation is today owned and operated by their sons Chris, Daryl and Tony Uhlenberg.

Describing the Uhlenbergs as “old school family truckies”, Daryl talks about the company’s time-honored journey with a definite tone of pride, especially the work of his parents in laying the foundations for what is today an iconic fleet in its own right.

Cummins Inc. made its debut in the Uhlenberg fleet in 1971 with an NH250 powering a second-hand Kenworth K923 used in logging. A second Kenworth, a new W924 with a Cummins NTC335, followed soon after hauling an LPG tanker.

The Uhlenberg operation today comprises 40 prime movers and a variety of trailing gear to cater for the myriad of a jobs the fleet is involved in.

A number of Peterbilts feature in the fleet although Kenworth is now the brand of choice with six new units to be delivered over the next 12 months to cater for business growth.

Cummins’ X15 Euro 5 engine rated at 550 or 600 hp is the preferred power specification, with 18 red engines currently in the fleet.

Uhlenberg family in front of truck

Whole-of-life support

“The switch to Cummins has been a very good experience for us. We have nothing but praise for the Cummins organization,” says Daryl.

“The whole-of-life picture is the key thing for us and we’ve got that nailed with the support we get from Cummins – parts availability, scheduled maintenance, life expectancy and in-frame rebuilds.

“So the red engines turn up, we run them to life, which is 900,000 to 1.2 million kilometers, and then Cummins does an in-frame overhaul in a timely manner. If there’s an issue, parts and support are close by.

“The support we get from Cummins Palmerston North is fantastic, second to none.”

Daryl recently looked under a Kenworth that was in the workshop for a service and was surprised to see no oil leaking from the one-million-kilometer X15. “I remember when I was a fitter we had to wear a raincoat when working under a truck,” he jokes.

Fuel agnostic

Acknowledging that the push to decarbonize is now “very real”, Daryl likes the idea of Cummins’ fuel agnostic concept where one base internal combustion engine, optimized to run on diesel, can also be customized to run on ultra-low and zero-carbon fuels like renewable natural gas and hydrogen.

“My father was a pioneer of linehaul trucking in New Zealand and he always embraced new technology. He was never scared of it,” he says.

“I tend to be a little more cautious but I can see where a 500 hp natural gas or hydrogen engine would work for us in short haul applications,” he admits. “We’re certainly willing to look closely at these alternative fuel technologies when suitable infrastructure is in place.”

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